Both policy expectations and the term premium have driven up yields.

政策预期和期限溢价都推高了收益率。

Some attribute the surge in the term premium to simple supply and demand.

一些人将期限溢价的飙升归因于简单的供需关系。

The uncertain effects of all this push up the term premium.

所有这些的不确定影响推高了期限溢价。

This concept of term premium has kind of become this little box that investors can stuff with all their anxieties.

期限溢价的概念已经成为投资者可以装满所有焦虑的小盒子。

What remains—however large or small—is the term premium.

剩下的——无论大小——就是期限溢价。

In truth, though, the term premium is a nebulous thing, and must be treated with caution.

但事实上，溢价一词是一个模糊的概念，必须谨慎对待。

When estimates of the term premium are published, they are not typically accompanied by a margin of error.

当期限溢价的估计值发布时，通常不会附带误差幅度。

The New York Fed publishes a daily estimate of the term premium on the ten-year Treasury yield, derived from a financial model.

纽约联储每天公布根据金融模型得出的十年期国债收益率期限溢价的估计值。

Term premium is just this idea that you should get paid more, you know, the longer period of time you lend someone money.

期限溢价就是这样一种想法，即您借钱给某人的时间越长，您应该获得的报酬就越多。

There is also surprisingly little history from which to draw when making assessments of changes in the yield curve or term premium.

令人惊讶的是，在评估收益率曲线或期限溢价的变化时，可以借鉴的历史也很少。

Although markets have not priced in much more long-run inflation yet, measures of inflation risk—which affects the term premium—have rebounded since falling earlier this year.

尽管市场尚未消化长期通胀的影响，但影响期限溢价的通胀风险指标自今年早些时候下降以来已出现反弹。

Driving the latest scare is the rising term premium, which is often described as the additional yield investors require to hold longer-dated securities, given the extra uncertainty over such extended periods.

引发最新恐慌的是不断上升的期限溢价，考虑到如此长期限内的额外不确定性，期限溢价通常被描述为投资者持有较长期证券所需的额外收益。

The difference between what it costs to borrow in the short term and the long term is called the " term premium" —and it has returned with a vengeance (see chart).

短期借贷成本和长期借贷成本之间的差异被称为“期限溢价”，而且它已经大幅回归（见图表）。

The other is the " term premium" , which compensates investors for the chance of nasty surprises: that forecasts for interest rates or inflation turn out to be wrong—or even, in theory, that the government defaults.

另一个是“期限溢价”，它补偿投资者可能出现的令人不快的意外情况：对利率或通胀的预测最终被证明是错误的，甚至在理论上政府违约。

For anyone concerned about whether a shifting yield curve or a rising term premium signals a looming recession or a nightmare for markets, these simple realities are a better place to start.

对于那些担心收益率曲线变化或期限溢价上升是否预示着即将到来的衰退或市场噩梦的人来说，这些简单的现实是一个更好的起点。